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B rasil e Argentina são economias que dependem uma da outra pela proximidade. Apesar das diferenças estruturais e dos indicadores econômicos, ainda possuem semelhanças, principalmente, na área fiscal, de acordo com analistas. Os dois países estão com a dívida pública bruta elevadíssima em proporção ao Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), como mostra o quadro ao lado. Esse cenário não deixa espaço para o poder público estimular a economia por meio do investimento, e não conseguem fazer um ajuste fiscal em ritmo acelerado. As reformas estruturais em ritmo mais acelerado são essenciais para evitar um novo mergulho na recessão, alertam.
O país vizinho está mergulhado no segundo ano seguido de queda do PIB neste ano. Analistas lembram que esse cenário, deve-se, em grande parte, à inflação elevada e ao fato de o presidente argentino, Mauricio Macri, ter feito um ajuste fiscal muito gradual. Eles lembram que, como Macri corre o risco de não se reeleger no fim deste ano, ele partiu para medidas desesperadas e populistas (que não deram certo no Brasil dos anos 1980), como congelamento de preços. Além disso, está na contramão da cartilha do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), que voltou a socorrer Buenos Aires com a saída de Cristina Kirchner, que está na frente das pesquisas em um eventual segundo turno contra Macri.
O presidente da Associação de Comércio Exterior do Brasil (AEB), José Augusto de Castro, não tem dúvidas de que essas medidas artificiais anunciadas por Macri não funcionarão. Apesar de achar que o risco de o Brasil cair no mesmo ciclo recessivo que atravessa a Argentina ser pequeno, Castro reconhece que, se a reforma da Previdência não acontecer neste ano, esse risco vai crescer. “A consequência de não haver reformas piora a atividade econômica, que vai ser pífia. O país não está criando condições para um crescimento sustentável. O desemprego está altíssimo. Os juros não caem”, afirma ele, lembrando que as estimativas iniciais de alta do PIB deste ano eram próximas de 3% e elas caem constantemente. Na avaliação dele, o comércio exterior não deve ajudar no PIB como no passado, porque as exportações do país estão encolhendo e devem fechar o ano com retração em torno de 8%. “Pelas nossas estimativas, em 2019, o país vai exportar US$ 20 bilhões a menos do que no ano passado”, aposta.
Este já caminha para ser um ano perdido e 2020 é uma interrogação, avalia o consultor e professor-doutor Antonio Corrêa de Lacerda, diretor da Faculdade de Economia e Administração (FEA) e ex-coordenador do Programa de Estudos Pós-graduados em Economia Política da Pontifícia Universidade Católica (PUC-SP). «O Estado deveria estar investindo mais para ativar a economia. Está acontecendo o contrário. A economia fica sem vetores para reagir», afirma.
Para Lacerda, o discurso do ministro Paulo Guedes não mudou desde a campanha eleitoral: a «reforma» da Previdência vai propiciar a retomada da confiança e, consequentemente, da atividade. «Isso não funcionou em nenhum lugar do mundo. Essa economia fragilizada é um nó para a área fiscal.»
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